Climate Game Changer

The terms “weather” and “climate” are often used interchangeably but they refer to events with broadly different timescales.

What’s the difference between weather and climate?

Climate is a statistical and aggregate study of past weather conditions over a number of years — from decades to centuries. Weather, on the other hand, comprises the day-to-day changes in temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind that we experience.

Climate is often expressed in terms of months and seasons while weather is measured by days and weeks. While it is possible to provide weather forecasts, it is only possible to provide general projections for climate due to the wide time scales and uncertainties involved.

Then is global warming and climate change the same?

Not exactly!

The greenhouse effect occurs naturally when heat from the Earth’s surface is absorbed by greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs).

Greenhouse gases are naturally present in the air. They allow the Earth’s atmosphere to be warm enough to support life. However, human activities such as burning of fossil fuels for energy and industrial production, and the clearing of forests to raise livestock, increases the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere. These additional GHGs trap even more heat in the atmosphere, making the Earth warmer. Global warming leads to long-term climate change.

So what is climate change?

Climate change refers to significant variations in global weather patterns that persist over an extended period of time.

Over the past 100 years, global temperatures have been increasing faster than ever before. As the Earth gets warmer, rain patterns are changing, sea levels are rising, and year after year, snow and ice are melting sooner each spring. The impact of climate change on the environment is becoming increasingly apparent as climate conditions continue to change and intensify.

The consensus among the scientific community is that climate change is the result of a complex combination of natural and man-made activity. The findings of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an internationally accepted authority on climate change that provides comprehensive scientific assessments on climate change, indicate that human activities are indeed speeding up climate change.

Like many countries around the world, Singapore is experiencing the effects of climate change.

In recent years, Singapore has seen bouts of high temperatures, intense thunderstorms leading to flash floods, dry spells, and the threat of rising sea levels along low-lying stretches of our coastlines, like the East Coast. These events can cause significant damage to homes, businesses and livelihoods.

As a low-lying tropical island state, we are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Here are some examples of how Singapore is experiencing the effects of climate change.

Warmer Weather

2019 was our hottest year on record, alongside 2016. The annual mean temperature in 2019 was 28.4°C — 0.9°C higher than the 1981-2010 long-term average, and equalled the previous warmest year record of 28.4°C set in 2016.

Towards the end of this century, daily mean temperatures are projected to increase by 0.6°C to 5.0°C, compared with the baseline period of 1995 to 2014.

Dry Spell

In 2014, Singapore experienced a record 27-day dry spell. Our desalination and NEWater plants had to operate near full capacity to meet our water needs.

Heavy Rainfall

Heavy rainfall contributing to flash flood events have become more common.

The contrast between the wet months (Nov to Jan) and dry months (Feb and Jun to Sep) will likely become more pronounced in the future. Increasing trends in both intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events and dry spells are expected as the world gets warmer.

How else can climate change affect Singapore?

Coastal and Inland Floods

Climate change could cause mean sea-level rise of up to 1.15 metre by 2100 in Singapore. If there is a confluence of extreme high tides and storm surges, sea levels could rise transiently by up to 4 to 5 metres above mean sea level If there is a confluence of extreme high tides and storm surges, some projections suggest that sea levels could rise transiently by up to 4 to 5 metres above mean sea level. This is high enough to potentially flood one-third of Singapore.

Our Water Supply

An increase in the intensity of weather variability could present significant challenges to the management of our water resources. Episodes of intense rainfall could overwhelm our drainage system and lead to flash floods.

Our Food Supply

The effects of climate change, such as intense storms, flooding and prolonged droughts, are one of the trends threatening global food security. In Singapore, we are particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global food supply and prices, as we import more than 90% of our food.

Our Temperatures

Temperatures are set to rise over time due to climate change, and rising temperatures will be compounded by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, as our densely built-up environment absorbs and retains heat, and activities such as transportation and industrial works generate heat. With rising temperatures, people will feel hotter and are likely to experience greater levels of heat stress.

Our Food Supply

The effects of climate change, such as intense storms, flooding and prolonged droughts, are one of the trends threatening global food security. In Singapore, we are particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global food supply and prices, as we import more than 90% of our food.

Our Public Health

Higher temperatures may affect human health and healthcare services. Vector populations could increase due to higher temperatures and more intense rainfall during rainy months, increasing the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as dengue and other zoonotic diseases transmitted between animals and humans.

Our Biodiversity and Greenery

Climate change is associated with shifts in rainfall patterns and temperature changes, which may lead to alterations at the ecosystem and species levels across various habitats of Singapore, including terrestrial, coastal and marine. Increase in frequency of extreme weather events, such as storms with heavy rainfall and strong wind, may lead to increased risk of treefalls.

Our Essential Services

Intense rainfall, sea level rise, and temperature changes could affect the operation of our telecommunications, power, and transport infrastructure.

Our Buildings and Infrastructure

Safety and reliability of infrastructure could be impacted by strong winds and higher temperatures. Increased rainfall could lead to soil erosion slope instability.

Robust, credible and objective scientific assessments form the cornerstone of our climate change strategy.

Even as we harness science and technology, Singapore is taking a measured approach against climate change as well as developing meaningful solutions to tackle climate change problems.

For some years, we have already started research and made early investments in climate science.

Research findings have allowed us to make specific policy formulations and will give policy makers guidance on the need to protect critical infrastructure against the impact of climate change.

Evidence-based climate policies

In 2013, we had established the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) under the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS). CCRS is one of the few dedicated centres in the region that focuses on research in tropical weather and climate.

Climate science, where it is developed specifically for the tropics, is a new and complex area of research. CCRS develops research expertise in the weather and climate of Singapore and the wider Southeast Asia region. It also undertakes projections of Singapore’s future climate for long-term planning, as well as research into the characteristics and causes of extreme weather.

It has since grown to be one of our region’s most advanced tropical climate research centres.

Most recently in 2024, CCRS has released the results of Singapore’s Third National Climate Change Study (V3), which provides the world’s highest resolution climate projections for Singapore and Southeast Asia. These updated projections will be used to guide climate adaptation plans so that Singapore remains resilient.

CCRS also administers research programmes through the Climate Science Research Programme Office to carry out climate impact science research, which will inform the government’s climate adaptation strategies. There are two research programmes, which fund projects from our universities and research institutes.

• First, the National Sea Level Programme aims to coordinate relevant climate research in Singapore and address key knowledge gaps in the understanding and modelling of the physical mechanisms of sea level rise and variability, with specific focus on Singapore and the wider Southeast Asia region.

• Second, the Climate Impact Science Research Programme focuses on five key priority areas to better understand the long-term impact of climate change on Singapore. They are sea level rise; water resources and flood management; biodiversity and food security; human health and energy; and cross-cutting research to bridge science-policy translation.

Singapore’s Contribution to the Development of Climate Science

Professor Winston Chow from Singapore Management University is elected as Co-Chair for Working Group II (WGII) on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Seventh Assessment Report Cycle (AR7) Bureau. He works closely with fellow Co-Chair Professor Bart van den Hurk from the Netherlands.

Professor Chow is Singapore’s first elected Bureau member of the IPCC, the UN body for assessing the science related to climate change. The work of the IPCC AR7 will guide global climate action for the rest of this decade.

Singapore is supporting the Singapore branch of the WGII Technical Support Unit (TSU), which provides scientific, technical, operational and communications support that underpin and implement the WGII assessment process.

Singapore also hosted an IPCC Scoping Meetingvin October 2019, together with a meeting of the IPCC Bureau.

This Scoping Meeting laid the foundation for drafting the Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report Cycle (AR6).

Climate science tailored to the tropics is still a nascent area of research. Through our efforts, we hope to continue working more closely with the IPCC to further strengthen and advance the understanding of tropical climates. We will share our knowledge and expertise with countries in our region and work with them to enhance capacity to tackle climate change.

Climate change mitigation refers to efforts to reduce or prevent emission of greenhouse gases.

Given our limited potential for alternative energy sources, improving energy efficiency is our key strategy for reducing emissions in all sectors of the economy.

Furthermore, our energy demand is expected to grow in the future due to an expanding economy and a growing population. Much of this growing energy demand can be avoided if we use energy more efficiently, instead of increasing energy production.

Transforming our economy towards a low carbon future

By reducing our CO2 emissions and making use of innovative low-carbon solutions, Singapore can contribute to international efforts to address climate change.

Over the years, we have steadily rolled out a comprehensive suite of measures to reduce emissions across all sectors:

Early Fuel Switch

Since the 2000s, Singapore has progressively switched from fuel oil/diesel to natural gas, a cleaner fuel. Currently, 95% of our electricity is generated from natural gas, up from 26% in 2001.

Among all fossil fuels, natural gas produces the least amount of carbon emissions per unit of electricity. By switching to clean fuel, we have reduced the amount of carbon we release into the atmosphere.

Pricing Carbon

Singapore is the first country in Southeast Asia to introduce a carbon price.

The tax was introduced in 2019 at S$5/tonne of CO2e, and there are no exemptions for covered facilities, to maintain a transparent, fair, and consistent price signal across the economy.

It will incentivise emissions reduction across all sectors and support the transition to a low-carbon economy.

We will review the tax rate by 2023, with the intention of increasing the tax rate to between S$10 and S$15/tonne of CO₂e by 2030.

In doing so, we will take into account international developments, the progress of our mitigation efforts, and our economic competitiveness.

The Government is prepared to spend more than the estimated S$$1 billion in carbon tax revenue collected in the first five years to support projects that reduce carbon emissions.

Improving our industry energy efficiency

The industry sector accounts for more than half of Singapore’s greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of energy efficiency projects and good energy management practices not only saves energy, it can also reduce costs for companies.

The Energy Conservation Act has put in place enhanced requirements for large industrial energy users to measure and evaluate their energy performance.

We are targeting for the industry to achieve an energy efficiency improvement rate of 1 to 2% per annum – a rate achieved by leading countries such as Belgium and the Netherlands over the past 10 years.

To assist companies transit to a low-carbon economy, we will use revenue from our carbon tax to provide grants and incentives to help businesses reduce their emissions and become more energy and carbon efficient.

Harnessing more solar power

In Singapore, solar energy is the most promising renewable energy option.

To overcome our land constraints, we are investing in innovative solar technologies, such as floating solar photovoltaic systems on our reservoirs and offshore. These will be among the world’s largest when ready.

JTC has also launched its Solar Land programme to develop and deploy mobile substations and solar panels on temporary land. This allows the system to be redeployed, should the land or space be needed for other uses.

We aim to reach 350 megawatt-peak (MWp) by 2020 and at least two gigawatt-peak (GWp) by 2030 (enough to power around 350,000 Singaporean households a year – more than 10% of the peak daily electricity demand today), and an energy storage deployment target of 200MW beyond 2025.

Greening our transport

Promoting sustainable transport and managing vehicular emissions will also help reduce C02. We promote cleaner vehicles through emissions standards and encourage the early replacement of older and more pollutive vehicles, such as through the Early Turnover Scheme. More than 40,000 commercial diesel vehicles have switched to cleaner vehicles under this scheme.

As part of the Land Transport Master Plan 2040, we aim for nine in 10 peak-period journeys to be made via Walk-Cycle-Ride modes of transport (which include public and shared transport such as taxis and private hire cars), and to have 100% greener, cleaner energy public bus and taxi fleets by 2040.

We are reviewing our policies and working with the industry on various fronts to promote the greater use of greener, cleaner energy private vehicles. We are also enhancing existing transport facilities to make them more environmentally-friendly, and designing and building new land transport, airport and port facilities that are sustainable and green, through incorporating energy efficient and carbon mitigation features and technologies.

Greening our buildings

We are on track to having at least 80% of our buildings (by floor area) achieve Green buildings standards by 2030. We will develop new standards to promote super-low energy, zero-energy, and positive energy buildings to push the boundaries for energy efficiency for buildings in Singapore.

We are striving to harness resource synergies and reduce the carbon footprint in our public infrastructure. We are building a used water and waste treatment plant called Tuas Nexus by 2025, which can integrate water reclamation and waste-to-energy incineration in a single facility, and reduce the amount of energy required in the used water treatment process. This can help us cut down carbon emissions by more than 200,000 tonnes a year – the equivalent of taking more than 42,500 cars off the road.

Reducing waste

We aim to reduce waste sent to the landfill each day by 30% by 2030, and achieve an overall national recycling rate of 70% by 2030, from 60% in 2018.

We are working with partners in the public, private and people sectors to move Singapore towards more sustainable production and consumption. This will include the adoption of a circular economy approach to reuse our resources for as long as possible. This will reduce our environmental footprint and strength our resource resilience.